Data from the general congressional ballot shows support for Democratic candidates is slightly higher than that for Republicans, presenting a challenge to the GOP’s control of the House of Representatives, according to RealClearPolling (RCP).

Between July 1 and Aug. 4, RCP found Democrats leading Republicans by an average of 3.4 percentage points, (45.5% vs. 42.1%). In a news release obtained by CatholicVote, RCP stated that the generic congressional ballot question is usually an accurate indicator of which party will win control of the House. RCP has monitored the generic congressional ballot every election since 2002, correctly predicting control of the House with the exception of the 2016 election.

RCP noted that other polls in the average also show support for Democratic candidates edging ahead of Republicans.

“While there is still over a year until the midterms, unless Republicans can make a significant dent in the Democrats’ lead, they will likely lose the House,” RCP stated in the release.

As CatholicVote previously reported, overtaking the Senate will pose more of a challenge to Democrats than controlling the House. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and while the party is defending 13 seats to the GOP’s 22, some of the Democrats’ seats are still vulnerable.

“Of the party’s 13 seats up for reelection, DemList considers nine safe,” CatholicVote reported. “The remaining four — Georgia, and three of the four open seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire — are expected to face intense Republican pressure. Democrats are especially concerned about Georgia and Michigan, which both flipped red in the 2024 presidential election.”