VATICAN CITY // The next pope will not be a “Francis II,” according to seasoned Vatican analyst Marco Politi, who shared his views in an interview with the French news agency AFP ahead of the conclave set to begin May 7.

Politi, a prominent Italian journalist renowned for his progressive insights on Church affairs, responded to questions posed by AFP’s Vatican correspondent Clément Melki regarding the direction the cardinal electors may take. In his view, the successor to Pope Francis will mark a departure from the current pontificate’s distinctive approach. “We know there will be no Francis II,” he said, emphasizing that Pope Francis’ spontaneous, at times unpredictable, leadership style — marked by dramatic gestures and off-the-cuff remarks — is unlikely to be emulated by the eligible cardinals.

“It is the first conclave in 50 years in which there is a strong feeling of fracture in the Church ... That is the main challenge of this conclave,” said Politi, who has reported on the Vatican for decades and authored several books on modern popes, from John Paul II to Francis.

Politi noted that many of the electors, drawn from across the globe, “have never been to a conclave and hardly know each other.” Their limited familiarity with one another — and often with the inner workings of the Vatican’s central administration — creates what he described as a complex electoral landscape. This unfamiliarity, he remarked, “makes this conclave difficult.”

Looking to the future, Politi foresees a different style of papal leadership emerging. “Now, precisely because there's this idea of bringing everyone together again, we need more careful, more collegial management.” He observed that Pope Francis “made little use of teamwork with the offices of the Curia,” and even “open-minded cardinals” have criticized him for not convening the College of Cardinals more frequently.

In Politi’s assessment, the Church now needs a pope who can act as a bridge-builder — someone capable of “mending fences” between its divided factions.

When asked whether any particular candidate stands out, Politi responded, “I think we have to consider that there may be a surprise. I find it strange these days that a good conservative has not yet emerged as a real candidate.”

He added, "What's needed is a conservative with a human face, a sympathetic conservative who maybe communicates but then puts the brakes on the (female) diaconate, but does so gently. This figure has not yet appeared."