Canada’s federal election delivered a surprise upset April 28 as the Liberal Party — widely expected to lose — retained power under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

After winning the Liberal Party's leadership election in March 2025, Carney was appointed prime minister, succeeding Justin Trudeau. Shortly afterward, he called a snap federal election for April 28 in an effort to secure a new mandate from voters.

According to Rupa Subramanya of The Free Press, the snap election outcome reflected not only domestic shifts but also an unexpected wave of nationalist backlash triggered by comments from US President Donald Trump. 

Subramanya reported that going into 2024, the Conservatives had a commanding lead, consistently polling ahead of the Liberals by 20 points under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre. Their campaign focused sharply on affordability, crime, and ending the unpopular carbon tax. 

After nearly a decade of Liberal rule under Justin Trudeau — marred by low economic growth, rising unemployment, and stagnant wages — many believed a Conservative victory was inevitable.

Yet the political winds shifted rapidly. A key turning point came in January when Trudeau stepped down following the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who reportedly lost confidence in Trudeau’s ability to handle rising tensions with the US. 

That paved the way for Carney — a seasoned economist who had led both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England — to take the helm in March.

Carney’s rise was timely. According to the Free Press article, he quickly repealed the carbon tax, blunting a major Conservative talking point. More crucially, his moderate, steady demeanor stood in sharp contrast to the populist tumult brewing just south of the border.

According to Subramanya, the biggest surprise came from the US. Trump began to jokingly refer to Canada as America’s “51st state” and call Trudeau “Governor Trudeau.” While Americans mostly shrugged off the comments, Subramanya noted that many Canadians were alarmed. 

The rhetoric sparked a surge in nationalist sentiment — Canadians began booing the US national anthem at hockey games, avoiding American products, and canceling cross-border trips.

Veteran pollster Frank Graves, quoted by Subramanya, said that Trump’s annexation talk caused a “visceral recoil” in Canadian voters. Though Poilievre had been running a strong campaign, Graves observed that Trump’s trade war and public provocations were disruptive. 

“Poilievre had difficulty pivoting,” Graves said, noting that the Conservative base’s admiration for Trump left Poilievre trapped between alienating core supporters or swing voters.

Subramanya also pointed out that Poilievre’s cautious media strategy may have backfired. Popular Canadian YouTuber J.J. McCullough told her that Poilievre’s avoidance of broader media engagement limited his reach. 

Graves added that the presence of Trump-sympathetic voters in the Conservative base made it harder for Poilievre to attract the moderate voters he needed.

As the results rolled in, many Conservative voters expressed disbelief that the Liberals had managed to hold onto power. Brody Raffan, 36, from Armstrong, British Columbia, told the Free Press journalist: “I honestly can’t believe how some people can just forget about the complete disaster the last 10 years have been, all because of some dumb comments from Trump. We are in for a very rough few years.”

Meanwhile, Carney’s calm and calculated approach offered a sharp contrast. According to Subramanya, his professional reputation and decisive move to kill the carbon tax reassured voters. 

“Mark is a fighter,” Carney’s longtime associate Bill Winters told her. “He can be smooth and polite, honest and straight, but also ruthless and tough. He’s extremely technically capable in a broad range of areas.”

Carney now steps into leadership at a precarious moment. Subramanya wrote that the new prime minister inherits a country grappling with “economic uncertainty, stagnating incomes, high housing costs, cost of living expenses that have skyrocketed, immigration levels that are straining public services while creating a populist backlash, a rising separatist movement in the West, and a volatile relationship with its closest ally.”